The Prediction Markets

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$51K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Apple 61.7%

Next is NVIDIA at 27.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Apple 61.7%NVIDIA 27.7%Alphabet 6.3%Microsoft 3.6%SpaceX 0.4%3 others 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Apple
61.7%
Polymarket 63.5%(61.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apple
Last price
63.5%
Fair, margin removed
61.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
NVIDIA
27.7%
Polymarket 28.5%(27.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
NVIDIA
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alphabet
6.3%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alphabet
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
3.6%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceX
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceX
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Broadcom
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Broadcom
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Saudi Aramco
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saudi Aramco
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tesla
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tesla
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Apple
  • NVIDIA
  • Alphabet

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?". Apple leads at 61.7%. Next is NVIDIA at 27.7%. $51K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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