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Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 161 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Larry Page37%37%33¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Larry Page37%Polymarket 37%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Larry Page
37%
37%
33¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Larry Page
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Larry Page
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $21K
Jeff Bezos31.2%31.2%0.3¢ bid, 62.1¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago62.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Jeff Bezos31.2%Polymarket 31.2%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 62.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Jeff Bezos
31.2%
31.2%
0.3¢ bid, 62.1¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
62.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Jeff Bezos
31.2%
Polymarket 31.2%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 62.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jeff Bezos
- Last price
- 31.2%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 62.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
- Volume
- $9K
Sergey Brin24.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Sergey Brin24.5%Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Sergey Brin
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Sergey Brin
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sergey Brin
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $7K
Warren Buffett24.4%24.4%0.3¢ bid, 48.5¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago48.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $206 (2.06x)Warren Buffett24.4%Polymarket 24.4%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 48.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $206 (2.06x)
Warren Buffett
24.4%
24.4%
0.3¢ bid, 48.5¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
48.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $206 (2.06x)
Warren Buffett
24.4%
Polymarket 24.4%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 48.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $206 (2.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Warren Buffett
- Last price
- 24.4%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 48.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $206 (2.06x)
- Volume
- $1K
Mark Zuckerberg23%23%— bid, 46¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Mark Zuckerberg23%Polymarket 23%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Mark Zuckerberg
23%
23%
— bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Mark Zuckerberg
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Zuckerberg
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $317
Elon Musk14.5%14.5%5¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Elon Musk14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Elon Musk
14.5%
14.5%
5¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Elon Musk
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elon Musk
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $609
Larry Ellison3%3%1.2¢ bid, 4.7¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago4.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)Larry Ellison3%Polymarket 3%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Larry Ellison
3%
3%
1.2¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
4.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Larry Ellison
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Larry Ellison
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $582
Bernard Arnault1.4%1.4%0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago2.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)Bernard Arnault1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Bernard Arnault
1.4%
1.4%
0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
2.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Bernard Arnault
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernard Arnault
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $561
Jensen Huang0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Jensen Huang0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Jensen Huang
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Jensen Huang
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jensen Huang
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $662
Steve Ballmer0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 3883 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Steve Ballmer0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Steve Ballmer
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 3883 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Steve Ballmer
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steve Ballmer
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 161 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $525
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Larry Page
- Jeff Bezos
- Sergey Brin
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "2nd richest person on December 31?". Larry Page last traded at 37%. Next is Jeff Bezos at 31.2%. $41K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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