Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
4.56% or above 71%
Next is 4.58% or above at 66%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.56% or above71%71%61¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, 22s ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)4.56% or above71%Kalshi 71%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.56% or above
71%
71%
61¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.56% or above
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.56% or above
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
4.58% or above66%66%56¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 22s ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)4.58% or above66%Kalshi 66%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.58% or above
66%
66%
56¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.58% or above
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.58% or above
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
4.6% or above62%62%52¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 22s ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)4.6% or above62%Kalshi 62%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.6% or above
62%
62%
52¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.6% or above
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.6% or above
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
4.62% or above57%57%47¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 22s ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)4.62% or above57%Kalshi 57%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.62% or above
57%
57%
47¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.62% or above
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.62% or above
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
4.64% or above52%52%42¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 22s ago62¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $161 (1.61x)4.64% or above52%Kalshi 52%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
4.64% or above
52%
52%
42¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
62¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
4.64% or above
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.64% or above
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
4.66% or above47%47%37¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 22s ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.66% or above47%Kalshi 47%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.66% or above
47%
47%
37¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.66% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.66% or above
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
4.68% or above42%42%32¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 22s ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)4.68% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.68% or above
42%
42%
32¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.68% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.68% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
4.7% or above37%37%27¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 22s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)4.7% or above37%Kalshi 37%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
4.7% or above
37%
37%
27¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
4.7% or above
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.7% or above
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
4.76% or above33%33%13¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 22s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)4.76% or above33%Kalshi 33%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
4.76% or above
33%
33%
13¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
4.76% or above
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.76% or above
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $17
4.72% or above32%32%22¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 22s ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)4.72% or above32%Kalshi 32%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
4.72% or above
32%
32%
22¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
4.72% or above
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.72% or above
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
4.74% or above27%27%17¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 22s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)4.74% or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
4.74% or above
27%
27%
17¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
4.74% or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.74% or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
4.8% or above26%26%7¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 22s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)4.8% or above26%Kalshi 26%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
4.8% or above
26%
26%
7¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
4.8% or above
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.8% or above
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $40
4.82% or above21%21%— bid, 21¢ askpolled, 22s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)4.82% or above21%Kalshi 21%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
4.82% or above
21%
21%
— bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
4.82% or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.82% or above
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $2
4.78% or above18%18%8¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 22s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)4.78% or above18%Kalshi 18%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
4.78% or above
18%
18%
8¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
4.78% or above
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.78% or above
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
4.88% or above15%15%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 22s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)4.88% or above15%Kalshi 15%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
4.88% or above
15%
15%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
4.88% or above
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.88% or above
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $896
4.84% or above12%12%— bid, 19¢ askpolled, 22s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)4.84% or above12%Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
4.84% or above
12%
12%
— bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
4.84% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.84% or above
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $1K
4.98% or above11%11%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 22s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)4.98% or above11%Kalshi 11%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
4.98% or above
11%
11%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
4.98% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.98% or above
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $200
5.02% or above8%8%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 22s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)5.02% or above8%Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.02% or above
8%
8%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.02% or above
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.02% or above
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $783
4.9% or above7%7%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, 22s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)4.9% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
4.9% or above
7%
7%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
4.9% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.9% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
4.94% or above7%7%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 22s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)4.94% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
4.94% or above
7%
7%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
4.94% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.94% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $300
4.92% or above6.5%6.5%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 22s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)4.92% or above6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
4.92% or above
6.5%
6.5%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
4.92% or above
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.92% or above
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
4.86% or above6%6%— bid, 16¢ askpolled, 22s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)4.86% or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
4.86% or above
6%
6%
— bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
4.86% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.86% or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $446
4.96% or above6%6%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 22s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)4.96% or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
4.96% or above
6%
6%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
4.96% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.96% or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
5.04% or above5.5%5.5%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 22s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)5.04% or above5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.04% or above
5.5%
5.5%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.04% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.04% or above
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
5% or above5.5%5.5%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 22s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)5% or above5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5% or above
5.5%
5.5%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.56% or above
- 4.58% or above
- 4.6% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?". 4.56% or above leads at 71%. Next is 4.58% or above at 66%. $4K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More economics markets
See all economics markets- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?Yes94.1%$31.5M traded
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rate93%$14.3M traded
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cuts94.2%$10.8M traded
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?115.01 or above39.8%$9.3M traded
- Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA59%$8.8M traded
- S&P close price end of 2026?7,800 to 7,999.9924%$8.0M traded