The Prediction Markets

#3 Album on Spotify U.S. in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Iceman 16.8%

Next is Dandelion at 13.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Iceman 16.8%Dandelion 13.6%petal 9.4%you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love 7.8%The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs 6.3%12 others 46.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Iceman
16.8%
Kalshi 16%(16.8% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iceman
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Dandelion
13.6%
Kalshi 13%(13.6% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dandelion
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
petal
9.4%
Kalshi 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
petal
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
7.8%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs
6.3%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
The Life of a Showgirl
6.3%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
GNX
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
GNX
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
I’m The Problem
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
I’m The Problem
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Man’s Best Friend
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Man’s Best Friend
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Short n' Sweet
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Short n' Sweet
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
So Close To What
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
So Close To What
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Art of Loving
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Art of Loving
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
With Heaven On Top
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
With Heaven On Top
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Iceman
  • Dandelion
  • petal

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#3 Album on Spotify U.S. in 2026?". Iceman leads at 16.8%. Next is Dandelion at 13.6%. $1K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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