The Prediction Markets

#3 Spotify Artist 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Taylor Swift 62.8%

Next is Billie Eilish at 13.6%. The venues differ most on Taylor Swift (Polymarket 81%, Kalshi 74%), a 7.0-point gap.

Taylor Swift 62.8%Billie Eilish 13.6%Drake 10.1%Chappell Roan 2.5%Bad Bunny 2%11 others 9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Taylor Swift
62.8%
Polymarket 81%(64.9% fair)polled, 58s agoKalshi 74%(61% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
81%
Fair, margin removed
64.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
74%
Fair, margin removed
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 76¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 84¢.

Billie Eilish
13.6%
Polymarket 17.2%(13.7% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 33.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $299 (2.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
17.2%
Fair, margin removed
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$299 (2.99x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Drake
10.1%
Polymarket 13.5%(10.8% fair)polled, 58s agoKalshi 11%(9.1% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Chappell Roan
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$327
Trade this on Kalshi
Bad Bunny
2%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 58s agoKalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.6¢.

BTS
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
BTS
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Kalshi
The Weeknd
1.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoKalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Beyoncé
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Jackson
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Jackson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Morgan Wallen
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Mars
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Justin BieberArb
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Eminem
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eminem
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ariana Grande
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Ed Sheeran
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Justin Bieber on Polymarket at 0.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 1¢ (20 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: newsroom.spotify.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Taylor Swift
  • Billie Eilish
  • Drake

Live prices for Taylor Swift

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#3 Spotify Artist 2026". Taylor Swift leads at 62.8%. Next is Billie Eilish at 13.6%. $75K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Spotify releases an annual report of its most-streamed artists (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market will resolve according to the third most-streamed Spotify artist for 2026. If Spotify does not release its third most-streamed artist for 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". If Spotify lists more than one artist as the third most-streamed artist, this market will resolve in favor of the artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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