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ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
2% or above 98%
Next is 2.75% or above at 84%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
2% or above98%98%75¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 h agoNo ask2% or above98%Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h ago
2% or above
98%
98%
75¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 h ago
No ask
2% or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2% or above
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- Volume
- $5K
2.75% or above84%84%16¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 1 h ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)2.75% or above84%Kalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
2.75% or above
84%
84%
16¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
2.75% or above
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.75% or above
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $9K
6.25% or above79%79%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)6.25% or above79%Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
6.25% or above
79%
79%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
6.25% or above
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.25% or above
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $4K
7.25% or above79%79%9¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 h ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)7.25% or above79%Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
7.25% or above
79%
79%
9¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
7.25% or above
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.25% or above
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $3K
6.75% or above75%75%40¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 1 h ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)6.75% or above75%Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
6.75% or above
75%
75%
40¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
6.75% or above
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.75% or above
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $3K
7.5% or above74%74%18¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 1 h ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)7.5% or above74%Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
7.5% or above
74%
74%
18¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
7.5% or above
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.5% or above
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $4K
4% or above71%71%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)4% or above71%Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4% or above
71%
71%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4% or above
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4% or above
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $5K
3.75% or above70%70%20¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 h ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)3.75% or above70%Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
3.75% or above
70%
70%
20¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
3.75% or above
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.75% or above
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $4K
7% or above68%68%22¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 h ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)7% or above68%Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
7% or above
68%
68%
22¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
7% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7% or above
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $6K
3.5% or above64%64%51¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 h agoNo ask3.5% or above64%Kalshi 64%polled, 1 h ago
3.5% or above
64%
64%
51¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 h ago
No ask
3.5% or above
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.5% or above
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- Volume
- $8K
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
3% or above63%63%47¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 1 h ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)3% or above63%Kalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
3% or above
63%
63%
47¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
3% or above
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3% or above
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $5K
3.25% or above55%55%26¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 1 h ago61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)3.25% or above55%Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
3.25% or above
55%
55%
26¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
3.25% or above
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.25% or above
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $3K
6% or above53%53%13¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 1 h ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)6% or above53%Kalshi 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
6% or above
53%
53%
13¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
6% or above
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6% or above
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $5K
6.5% or above52%52%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)6.5% or above52%Kalshi 52%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
6.5% or above
52%
52%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
6.5% or above
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.5% or above
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.25% or above49%49%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)5.25% or above49%Kalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
5.25% or above
49%
49%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
5.25% or above
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $4K
2.5% or above47%47%45¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 1 h ago63¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $159 (1.59x)2.5% or above47%Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
2.5% or above
47%
47%
45¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
63¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
2.5% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.5% or above
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $5K
4.25% or above47%47%47¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 1 h ago61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)4.25% or above47%Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
4.25% or above
47%
47%
47¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
4.25% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.25% or above
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $3K
2.25% or above42%42%42¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 1 h ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)2.25% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
2.25% or above
42%
42%
42¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
2.25% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.25% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $7K
7.75% or above42%42%32¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 1 h ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)7.75% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
7.75% or above
42%
42%
32¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
7.75% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 7.75% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $5K
5% or above33%33%31¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 1 h ago54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)5% or above33%Kalshi 33%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
5% or above
33%
33%
31¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
5% or above
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $7K
8% or above27%27%12¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 h ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)8% or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
8% or above
27%
27%
12¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
8% or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 8% or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $947
4.75% or above24%24%23¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 h agoNo ask4.75% or above24%Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h ago
4.75% or above
24%
24%
23¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 h ago
No ask
4.75% or above
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.75% or above
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- Volume
- $6K
4.5% or above22%22%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)4.5% or above22%Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4.5% or above
22%
22%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4.5% or above
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.5% or above
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $3K
5.5% or above22%22%22¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 1 h ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)5.5% or above22%Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
5.5% or above
22%
22%
22¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
5.5% or above
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.5% or above
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $5K
5.75% or above22%22%22¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 h ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)5.75% or above22%Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
5.75% or above
22%
22%
22¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
5.75% or above
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.75% or above
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $4K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 2% or above
- 2.75% or above
- 6.25% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?". 2% or above leads at 98%. Next is 2.75% or above at 84%. $116K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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