The Prediction Markets

333: Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun

Starts in 31 hKickoff
Traded
$80K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 2.5 Rounds 74%

Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 73.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 2.5 Rounds
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 0.5 Rounds
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Abubakar Vagaev
59.1%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 59%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 60¢.

Jacob Malkoun
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Malkoun
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fight won by KO/TKO?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 2.5 Rounds
  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • Fight to Go the Distance?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 2.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "333: Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun". O/U 2.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 73.5%. $80K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets