The Prediction Markets

333: Abusupiyan Magomedov vs Cameron Rowston

Starts in 37 hKickoff
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 63%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61.5%. The venues differ most on Abusupiyan Magomedov (Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Abusupiyan Magomedov
54.6%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abusupiyan Magomedov
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Ends before Round 3?
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Magomedov in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rowston to win by KO/TKO?
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rowston to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Rowston
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Rowston
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
O/U 2.5 Rounds
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • Abusupiyan Magomedov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "333: Abusupiyan Magomedov vs Cameron Rowston". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 63%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61.5%. $49K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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