The Prediction Markets

333: Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Gustavo Santos

Starts in 27 hKickoff
Traded
$33K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 83%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57%. The venues differ most on Daniel Gustavo Santos (Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 53%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83%
Polymarket 83%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Gustavo Santos
52.6%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 31s agoKalshi 53%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Gustavo Santos
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 52¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 52¢.

Ends before Round 3?
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolaji Oki
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bolaji Oki
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fight won by KO/TKO?
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Ends before Round 2?
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Oki to win by KO/TKO?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oki to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Santos to win by KO/TKO?
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Santos to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Oki in Round 1
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oki in Round 1
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Santos in Round 1
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Santos in Round 1
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Santos in Round 2
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Santos in Round 2
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Oki in Round 2
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oki in Round 2
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Santos in Round 3
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Santos in Round 3
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Oki in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oki in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:40 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • Daniel Gustavo Santos

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "333: Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Gustavo Santos". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 83%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57%. $33K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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