The Prediction Markets

3rd richest person on December 31?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bernard Arnault 46.8%

Next is Steve Ballmer at 43.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bernard Arnault
46.8%
Polymarket 46.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 92.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Arnault
Last price
46.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Ballmer
43.2%
Polymarket 43.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 85.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $117 (1.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Ballmer
Last price
43.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$117 (1.17x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 84.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Zuckerberg
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 57.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $174 (1.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Zuckerberg
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$174 (1.74x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeff Bezos
21.4%
Polymarket 21.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 41.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $239 (2.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
21.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$239 (2.39x)
Volume
$657
Trade this on Polymarket
Warren Buffett
17.2%
Polymarket 17.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Warren Buffett
Last price
17.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sergey Brin
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergey Brin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$683
Trade this on Polymarket
Larry Ellison
9.3%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 18.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $552 (5.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Larry Ellison
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$552 (5.52x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Larry Page
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 15.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $641 (6.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Larry Page
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jensen Huang
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jensen Huang
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Dell
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Dell
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bloomberg.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bernard Arnault
  • Steve Ballmer
  • Elon Musk

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "3rd richest person on December 31?". Bernard Arnault leads at 46.8%. Next is Steve Ballmer at 43.2%. $28K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets