The Prediction Markets

3rd richest person on March 31?

Closed
Mar 31, 2026
Traded
$352K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 207 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jeff Bezos
99.8%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4975 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Jeff Bezos
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$223K
Trade this on Polymarket
Larry Ellison
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4975 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Larry Ellison
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Larry Page
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4975 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Larry Page
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Zuckerberg
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4975 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Zuckerberg
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sergey Brin
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4975 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergey Brin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jeff Bezos
  • Larry Ellison
  • Larry Page

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "3rd richest person on March 31?". Jeff Bezos last traded at 99.8%. Next is Larry Ellison at 0.1%. $352K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on March 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by April 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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