The Prediction Markets

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Closes
Oct 30, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4.76% or above 72%

Next is 4.78% or above at 65%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
4.76% or above
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.76% or above
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
4.78% or above
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.78% or above
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
4.8% or above
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.8% or above
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
4.82% or above
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.82% or above
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
4.86% or above
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.86% or above
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.88% or above
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.88% or above
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
4.9% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.9% or above
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
4.84% or above
34.5%
Kalshi 34.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.84% or above
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.98% or above
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.98% or above
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Kalshi
5% or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
5.02% or above
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.02% or above
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Kalshi
4.94% or above
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.94% or above
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.04% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.04% or above
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
4.92% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.92% or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
5.12% or above
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.12% or above
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
5.14% or above
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.14% or above
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
5.16% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.16% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
5.18% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.18% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Kalshi
5.06% or above
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.06% or above
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.96% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.96% or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$577
Trade this on Kalshi
5.2% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.2% or above
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
5.08% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.08% or above
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.22% or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.22% or above
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
5.24% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.24% or above
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
5.26% or above
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.26% or above
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.3% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.3% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.4% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.4% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
5.28% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.28% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.32% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.32% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.34% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.34% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.42% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.42% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
5.44% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.44% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
5.36% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.36% or above
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.38% or above
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.38% or above
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.76% or above
  • 4.78% or above
  • 4.8% or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?". 4.76% or above leads at 72%. Next is 4.78% or above at 65%. $9K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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