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What the markets expect
4.66% or above 91%
Next is 4.68% or above at 89.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.66% or above91%91%83¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)4.66% or above91%Kalshi 91%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
4.66% or above
91%
91%
83¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
4.66% or above
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.66% or above
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
4.68% or above89.5%89.5%80¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)4.68% or above89.5%Kalshi 89.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
4.68% or above
89.5%
89.5%
80¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
4.68% or above
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.68% or above
- Last price
- 89.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
4.7% or above87%87%77¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, just now97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)4.7% or above87%Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
4.7% or above
87%
87%
77¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, just now
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
4.7% or above
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.7% or above
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
4.72% or above84.5%84.5%73¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, just now96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)4.72% or above84.5%Kalshi 84.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
4.72% or above
84.5%
84.5%
73¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, just now
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
4.72% or above
84.5%
Kalshi 84.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.72% or above
- Last price
- 84.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
4.74% or above82%82%70¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, just now94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)4.74% or above82%Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
4.74% or above
82%
82%
70¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, just now
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
4.74% or above
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.74% or above
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
4.76% or above79%79%66¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, just now92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)4.76% or above79%Kalshi 79%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
4.76% or above
79%
79%
66¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, just now
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
4.76% or above
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.76% or above
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
4.78% or above75.5%75.5%62¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, just now89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)4.78% or above75.5%Kalshi 75.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4.78% or above
75.5%
75.5%
62¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, just now
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4.78% or above
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.78% or above
- Last price
- 75.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
4.8% or above71.5%71.5%58¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, just now85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)4.8% or above71.5%Kalshi 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
4.8% or above
71.5%
71.5%
58¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, just now
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
4.8% or above
71.5%
Kalshi 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.8% or above
- Last price
- 71.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
4.82% or above66.5%66.5%53¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, just now80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)4.82% or above66.5%Kalshi 66.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.82% or above
66.5%
66.5%
53¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, just now
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.82% or above
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.82% or above
- Last price
- 66.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
4.86% or above65%65%49¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, just now65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)4.86% or above65%Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.86% or above
65%
65%
49¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, just now
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.86% or above
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.86% or above
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $752
Show 25 more outcomesHide 25 outcomes
4.84% or above62%62%49¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, just now75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)4.84% or above62%Kalshi 62%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.84% or above
62%
62%
49¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, just now
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.84% or above
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.84% or above
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
4.9% or above48%48%32¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, just now51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)4.9% or above48%Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
4.9% or above
48%
48%
32¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, just now
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
4.9% or above
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.9% or above
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $360
4.92% or above45%45%27¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, just now45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)4.92% or above45%Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
4.92% or above
45%
45%
27¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, just now
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
4.92% or above
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.92% or above
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $1K
4.88% or above40%40%40¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, just now61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)4.88% or above40%Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
4.88% or above
40%
40%
40¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, just now
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
4.88% or above
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.88% or above
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $794
4.94% or above40%40%21¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, just now46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)4.94% or above40%Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4.94% or above
40%
40%
21¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, just now
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4.94% or above
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.94% or above
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $772
4.96% or above30%30%17¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, just now39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)4.96% or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
4.96% or above
30%
30%
17¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, just now
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
4.96% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.96% or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $456
5% or above29%29%9¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, just now33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)5% or above29%Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
5% or above
29%
29%
9¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, just now
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
5% or above
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $56
5.02% or above26%26%7¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, just now29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)5.02% or above26%Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.02% or above
26%
26%
7¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, just now
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.02% or above
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.02% or above
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $136
5.1% or above17%17%2¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)5.1% or above17%Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
5.1% or above
17%
17%
2¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
5.1% or above
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $272
4.98% or above15%15%7¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, just now33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)4.98% or above15%Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
4.98% or above
15%
15%
7¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, just now
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
4.98% or above
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.98% or above
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $761
5.12% or above14%14%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, just now14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)5.12% or above14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.12% or above
14%
14%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, just now
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.12% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.12% or above
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $243
5.14% or above14%14%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, just now14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)5.14% or above14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.14% or above
14%
14%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, just now
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.14% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.14% or above
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $450
5.16% or above10%10%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.16% or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.16% or above
10%
10%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.16% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.16% or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $73
5.08% or above9.5%9.5%— bid, 19¢ askpolled, just now19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)5.08% or above9.5%Kalshi 9.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.08% or above
9.5%
9.5%
— bid, 19¢ ask
polled, just now
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.08% or above
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.08% or above
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
5.18% or above9%9%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)5.18% or above9%Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.18% or above
9%
9%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.18% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.18% or above
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $369
5.24% or above7%7%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)5.24% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5.24% or above
7%
7%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5.24% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.24% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $477
5.22% or above6%6%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)5.22% or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
5.22% or above
6%
6%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
5.22% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.22% or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $322
5.2% or above5%5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)5.2% or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5.2% or above
5%
5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5.2% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.2% or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $927
5.26% or above5%5%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)5.26% or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
5.26% or above
5%
5%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
5.26% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.26% or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $165
5.28% or above5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)5.28% or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
5.28% or above
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
5.28% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.28% or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $71
5.06% or above4%4%4¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, just now22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)5.06% or above4%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.06% or above
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, just now
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.06% or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.06% or above
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $591
5.04% or above3%3%2¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just now23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)5.04% or above3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
5.04% or above
3%
3%
2¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
5.04% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.04% or above
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $792
5.3% or above2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)5.3% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
5.3% or above
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
5.3% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.3% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $237
5.32% or above2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)5.32% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.32% or above
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.32% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.32% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $230
5.34% or above2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)5.34% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.34% or above
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.34% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.34% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $341
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.66% or above
- 4.68% or above
- 4.7% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?". 4.66% or above leads at 91%. Next is 4.68% or above at 89.5%. $11K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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