The Prediction Markets

A Team Test: New Zealand A vs India A

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$109K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

New Zealand A 57.6%

Next is Draw/Tie at 16.1%. The venues differ most on India A (Polymarket 17%, Kalshi 14%), a 3.0-point gap.

New Zealand A 57.6%Draw/Tie 16.1%Draw 13.3%India A 13%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
New Zealand A
57.6%
Polymarket 65%(56.1% fair)polled, 55s agoKalshi 65%(57.9% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Zealand A
Last price
65%
Fair, margin removed
56.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Zealand A
Last price
65%
Fair, margin removed
57.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 61¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

Draw/Tie
16.1%
Kalshi 18%(16% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/Tie
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw
13.3%
Polymarket 15.4%(13.3% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 19.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $508 (5.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw
Last price
15.4%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.7¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$508 (5.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
India A
13%
Polymarket 17%(14.7% fair)polled, 55s agoKalshi 14%(12.5% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
India A
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
India A
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: espncricinfo.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Cricbuzz, ESPN, ESPNcricinfo
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • New Zealand A
  • Draw/Tie
  • Draw

Live prices for New Zealand A

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "A Team Test: New Zealand A vs India A". New Zealand A leads at 57.6%. Next is Draw/Tie at 16.1%. $109K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the cricket match between New Zealand A and India A scheduled for October 23 2026 at 5:30 PM ET in A Team Test. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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