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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 83.5%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 58.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds83.5%83.5%79¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed88¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $114 (1.14x)O/U 0.5 Rounds83.5%Polymarket 83.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83.5%
83.5%
79¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
88¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 83.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds58.5%58.5%57¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)O/U 1.5 Rounds58.5%Polymarket 58.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
58.5%
58.5%
57¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
60¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $810
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita57.5%57.5%57¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita57.5%Polymarket 57.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
57.5%
57.5%
57¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
- Last price
- 57.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $68K
KO/TKO/DQ57%Not listed57%55¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 4 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)KO/TKO/DQ57%Kalshi 57%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
KO/TKO/DQ
57%
Not listed
57%
55¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
KO/TKO/DQ
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $1K
KO/TKO/DQPolymarket: “Fight won by KO/TKO?”55%55%52¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)KO/TKO/DQ55%Polymarket 55%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
KO/TKO/DQ
Polymarket: “Fight won by KO/TKO?”
55%
55%
52¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
KO/TKO/DQ
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $34
Ends before Round 3?51%51%48¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Ends before Round 3?51%Polymarket 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Ends before Round 3?
51%
51%
48¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Ends before Round 3?
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds42.5%42.5%38¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)O/U 2.5 Rounds42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
42.5%
42.5%
38¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
Decision or Draw36.5%36.5%32¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Decision or Draw36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Decision or Draw
36.5%
36.5%
32¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Decision or Draw
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
Fight to Go the Distance?36.5%36.5%34¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Fight to Go the Distance?36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
36.5%
36.5%
34¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Fight won by decision?36.5%36.5%32¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Fight won by decision?36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Fight won by decision?
36.5%
36.5%
32¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Fight won by decision?
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
Show 13 more outcomesHide 13 outcomes
Decision36%Not listed36%33¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 4 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Decision36%Kalshi 36%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Decision
36%
Not listed
36%
33¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Decision
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Decision
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $9
Ends before Round 2?29.5%29.5%27¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Ends before Round 2?29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ends before Round 2?
29.5%
29.5%
27¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ends before Round 2?
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $5
Keita to win by KO/TKO?28.5%28.5%25¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Keita to win by KO/TKO?28.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Keita to win by KO/TKO?
28.5%
28.5%
25¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Keita to win by KO/TKO?
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $267
Pico to win by KO/TKO?26.5%26.5%23¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Pico to win by KO/TKO?26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Pico to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
26.5%
23¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Pico to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Pico in Round 115.5%15.5%11¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Pico in Round 115.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Pico in Round 1
15.5%
15.5%
11¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Pico in Round 1
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico in Round 1
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Keita in Round 114.5%14.5%10¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Keita in Round 114.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Keita in Round 1
14.5%
14.5%
10¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Keita in Round 1
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita in Round 1
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Pico in Round 211.5%11.5%7¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Pico in Round 211.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Pico in Round 2
11.5%
11.5%
7¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Pico in Round 2
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico in Round 2
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Keita in Round 210.5%10.5%6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Keita in Round 210.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Keita in Round 2
10.5%
10.5%
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Keita in Round 2
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita in Round 2
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Submission10%Not listed10%7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 4 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Submission10%Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Submission
10%
Not listed
10%
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Submission
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Submission
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $166
Fight won by submission?9%9%6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Fight won by submission?9%Polymarket 9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Fight won by submission?
9%
9%
6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Fight won by submission?
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $15
Pico in Round 37%7%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Pico in Round 37%Polymarket 7%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Pico in Round 3
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Pico in Round 3
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico in Round 3
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Keita in Round 36%6%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 55s agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Keita in Round 36%Polymarket 6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Keita in Round 3
6%
6%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 55s ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Keita in Round 3
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita in Round 3
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Draw/No Contest2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest2%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $50
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita: Method of Finish". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 83.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 58.5%. $72K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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