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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 84%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 58.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds84%84%78¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)O/U 0.5 Rounds84%Polymarket 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
84%
84%
78¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds58.5%58.5%58¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)O/U 1.5 Rounds58.5%Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
58.5%
58.5%
58¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $810
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita56.5%56.5%56¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita56.5%Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
56.5%
56.5%
56¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
- Last price
- 56.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $29K
Fight won by KO/TKO?53.5%53.5%49¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Fight won by KO/TKO?53.5%Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
53.5%
53.5%
49¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 53.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
Ends before Round 3?51%51%49¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Ends before Round 3?51%Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Ends before Round 3?
51%
51%
49¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Ends before Round 3?
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds43%43%37¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)O/U 2.5 Rounds43%Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
43%
43%
37¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Decision or Draw36.5%36.5%31¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Decision or Draw36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Decision or Draw
36.5%
36.5%
31¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Decision or Draw
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Fight won by decision?36.5%36.5%31¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Fight won by decision?36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Fight won by decision?
36.5%
36.5%
31¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Fight won by decision?
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Fight to Go the Distance?34.5%34.5%34¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight to Go the Distance?34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
34.5%
34.5%
34¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $256
Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ29%Not listed29%26¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 2 min ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ29%Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ
29%
Not listed
29%
26¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Ends before Round 2?28.5%28.5%27¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Ends before Round 2?28.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Ends before Round 2?
28.5%
28.5%
27¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Ends before Round 2?
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Keita to win by KO/TKO?28%28%24¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Keita to win by KO/TKO?28%Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Keita to win by KO/TKO?
28%
28%
24¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Keita to win by KO/TKO?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $54
Aaron Pico by KO/TKO/DQ27%Not listed27%25¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 2 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Aaron Pico by KO/TKO/DQ27%Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Aaron Pico by KO/TKO/DQ
27%
Not listed
27%
25¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Aaron Pico by KO/TKO/DQ
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aaron Pico by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $1K
Pico to win by KO/TKO?26.5%26.5%23¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Pico to win by KO/TKO?26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Pico to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
26.5%
23¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Pico to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Aaron Pico by Decision22%Not listed22%21¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 2 min ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Aaron Pico by Decision22%Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Aaron Pico by Decision
22%
Not listed
22%
21¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Aaron Pico by Decision
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aaron Pico by Decision
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $33
Pico in Round 115.5%15.5%10¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Pico in Round 115.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Pico in Round 1
15.5%
15.5%
10¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Pico in Round 1
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico in Round 1
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
Keita in Round 114%14%8¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Keita in Round 114%Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Keita in Round 1
14%
14%
8¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Keita in Round 1
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita in Round 1
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Losene Keita by Decision12.5%Not listed12.5%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 2 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Losene Keita by Decision12.5%Kalshi 12.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Losene Keita by Decision
12.5%
Not listed
12.5%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Losene Keita by Decision
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Losene Keita by Decision
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Pico in Round 211.5%11.5%6¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Pico in Round 211.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Pico in Round 2
11.5%
11.5%
6¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Pico in Round 2
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico in Round 2
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Keita in Round 210.5%10.5%5¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Keita in Round 210.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Keita in Round 2
10.5%
10.5%
5¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Keita in Round 2
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita in Round 2
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Fight won by submission?10%10%6¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Fight won by submission?10%Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Fight won by submission?
10%
10%
6¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Fight won by submission?
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Aaron Pico by Submission8%Not listed8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Aaron Pico by Submission8%Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Aaron Pico by Submission
8%
Not listed
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Aaron Pico by Submission
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aaron Pico by Submission
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $265
Pico in Round 37.5%7.5%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Pico in Round 37.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Pico in Round 3
7.5%
7.5%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Pico in Round 3
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pico in Round 3
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Keita in Round 37%7%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Keita in Round 37%Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Keita in Round 3
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Keita in Round 3
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keita in Round 3
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Losene Keita by Submission3%Not listed3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Losene Keita by Submission3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Losene Keita by Submission
3%
Not listed
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Losene Keita by Submission
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Losene Keita by Submission
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Draw/No Contest1.5%Not listed1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 84%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 58.5%. $36K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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