The Prediction Markets

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun: Method of Finish

Starts in 10 hKickoff
Traded
$59K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 92.5%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 83.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Decision
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
KO/TKO/DQ
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
KO/TKO/DQ
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Ends before Round 3?
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Submission
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Submission
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vagaev in Round 1
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 1
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 1
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 1
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 2
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 2
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 2
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 2
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Draw/No Contest
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/No Contest
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun: Method of Finish". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 92.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 83.5%. $59K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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