The Prediction Markets

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: Method of Victory

Starts in 28 hKickoff
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 91.5%

Next is O/U 2.5 Rounds at 74%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Abubakar Vagaev by Decision
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev by Decision
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 3
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 3
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 16 more outcomes
Jacob Malkoun by Decision
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Malkoun by Decision
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Fight won by submission?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Abubakar Vagaev by KO/TKO/DQ
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jacob Malkoun by KO/TKO/DQ
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Malkoun by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Malkoun in Round 1
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 1
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 1
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 1
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 2
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 2
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vagaev in Round 3
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vagaev in Round 3
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malkoun in Round 2
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malkoun in Round 2
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Abubakar Vagaev by Submission
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abubakar Vagaev by Submission
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacob Malkoun by Submission
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Malkoun by Submission
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw/No Contest
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/No Contest
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds
  • Fight to Go the Distance?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 91.5%. Next is O/U 2.5 Rounds at 74%. $17K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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