The Prediction Markets

AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group F Winner

Closes
Feb 6, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 d ago
Share

What the markets expect

Japan 80.6%

Next is Qatar at 11.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Japan 80.6%Qatar 11.8%Indonesia 4.8%Thailand 2.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 34 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Japan
80.6%
Polymarket 71.5%(80.6% fair)polled, 34 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
71.5%
Fair, margin removed
80.6%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Qatar
11.8%
Polymarket 10.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 34 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qatar
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Indonesia
4.8%
Polymarket 4.3%(4.8% fair)polled, 34 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indonesia
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Polymarket
Thailand
2.8%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 34 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thailand
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Japan
  • Qatar
  • Indonesia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group F Winner". Japan leads at 80.6%. Next is Qatar at 11.8%. $11K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. If the 2027 AFC Asian Cup is cancelled, postponed after February 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the AFC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets