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What the markets expect
Japan 27.1%
Next is South Korea at 25.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Japan27.1%30.5%27.1% fair30¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 50s ago31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Japan27.1%Polymarket 30.5%(27.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Japan
27.1%
30.5%
27.1% fair
30¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Japan
27.1%
Polymarket 30.5%(27.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Japan
- Last price
- 30.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 27.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $2K
South Korea25.8%29%25.8% fair28¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 50s ago30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)South Korea25.8%Polymarket 29%(25.8% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
South Korea
25.8%
29%
25.8% fair
28¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
South Korea
25.8%
Polymarket 29%(25.8% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- South Korea
- Last price
- 29%
- Fair, margin removed
- 25.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $1K
Australia12.9%14.5%12.9% fair13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 50s ago16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Australia12.9%Polymarket 14.5%(12.9% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Australia
12.9%
14.5%
12.9% fair
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Australia
12.9%
Polymarket 14.5%(12.9% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Australia
- Last price
- 14.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $385
Iran5.3%6%5.3% fair0.1¢ bid, 11.9¢ askpolled, 50s ago11.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $840 (8.40x)Iran5.3%Polymarket 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Iran
5.3%
6%
5.3% fair
0.1¢ bid, 11.9¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
11.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Iran
5.3%
Polymarket 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Iran
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $840 (8.40x)
- Volume
- $335
Jordan4.4%5%4.4% fair4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 50s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jordan4.4%Polymarket 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jordan
4.4%
5%
4.4% fair
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jordan
4.4%
Polymarket 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jordan
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $103
Saudi Arabia4.4%5%4.4% fair4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 50s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Saudi Arabia4.4%Polymarket 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Saudi Arabia
4.4%
5%
4.4% fair
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Saudi Arabia
4.4%
Polymarket 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Saudi Arabia
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $187
United Arab Emirates2.5%2.8%2¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, 50s ago3.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)United Arab Emirates2.5%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
United Arab Emirates
2.5%
2.8%
2¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
United Arab Emirates
2.5%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- United Arab Emirates
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $98
North Korea2%2.3%1¢ bid, 3.5¢ askpolled, 50s ago3.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)North Korea2%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
North Korea
2%
2.3%
1¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
North Korea
2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- North Korea
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $320
Syria1.8%2.1%1.1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 50s ago3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Syria1.8%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Syria
1.8%
2.1%
1.1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Syria
1.8%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Syria
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $52
Iraq1.6%1.9%1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 50s ago2.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)Iraq1.6%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Iraq
1.6%
1.9%
1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
2.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Iraq
1.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Iraq
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $187
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Vietnam1.5%1.7%1.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 50s ago2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)Vietnam1.5%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Vietnam
1.5%
1.7%
1.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Vietnam
1.5%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vietnam
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $139
Indonesia1.4%1.6%1.1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 50s ago2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Indonesia1.4%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Indonesia
1.4%
1.6%
1.1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Indonesia
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Indonesia
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $53
China1.3%1.5%0.1¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 50s ago2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)China1.3%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
China
1.3%
1.5%
0.1¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
China
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- China
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $57
Tajikistan1.2%1.4%0.5¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 50s ago2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)Tajikistan1.2%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Tajikistan
1.2%
1.4%
0.5¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Tajikistan
1.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tajikistan
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $77
Uzbekistan1.1%1.3%0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 50s ago2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Uzbekistan1.1%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Uzbekistan
1.1%
1.3%
0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Uzbekistan
1.1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Uzbekistan
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $321
Kyrgyzstan1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 50s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Kyrgyzstan1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kyrgyzstan
1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kyrgyzstan
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kyrgyzstan
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $173
Oman1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 50s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Oman1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Oman
1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Oman
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oman
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $263
Palestine1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 50s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Palestine1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Palestine
1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Palestine
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Palestine
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $176
Yemen1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 50s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Yemen1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Yemen
1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Yemen
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yemen
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $168
Singapore0.8%1%— bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 50s ago1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Singapore0.8%Polymarket 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Singapore
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Singapore
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Singapore
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $95
Bahrain0.3%0.4%0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 50s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Bahrain0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bahrain
0.3%
0.4%
0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bahrain
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bahrain
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $116
Kuwait0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 50s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Kuwait0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kuwait
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kuwait
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kuwait
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $223
Qatar0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 50s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Qatar0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Qatar
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Qatar
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Qatar
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $215
Thailand0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 50s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Thailand0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Thailand
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Thailand
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thailand
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $143
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Japan
- South Korea
- Australia
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "AFC Asian Cup 2027 Winner". Japan leads at 27.1%. Next is South Korea at 25.8%. $7K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 AFC Asian Cup per the rules of the AFC (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2027 AFC Asian Cup is cancelled, postponed after February 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the AFC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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