The Prediction Markets

AFC Championship Winner

Closes
Feb 22, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$16.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Buffalo 19.7%

Next is Kansas City at 17.7%. The venues differ most on Cleveland (Polymarket 1.1%, Kalshi 3%), a 1.9-point gap.

Buffalo 19.7%Kansas City 17.7%Baltimore 13.7%Jacksonville 11.2%New England 8.6%11 others 29.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 32 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
BuffaloArb
19.7%
Polymarket 21.5%live, 23s agoKalshi 20%(19% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Buffalo Bills
Price
21.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Buffalo
Price
20%
Fair, margin removed
19%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$807K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 21¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Kansas City
17.7%
Polymarket 19%polled, 30s agoKalshi 18%(17.1% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kansas City Chiefs
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$175K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas City
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$949K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Baltimore
13.7%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 14%(13.3% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baltimore Ravens
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baltimore
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$378K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Jacksonville
11.2%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 12%(11.4% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jacksonville
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$778K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

New England
8.6%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
New England Patriots
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New England
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$662K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Cincinnati
7.5%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 30s agoKalshi 8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cincinnati Bengals
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$261K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cincinnati
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$837K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.2¢.

Denver
6.6%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver Broncos
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$955K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Houston
4.9%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 30s agoKalshi 5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston Texans
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$187K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.8¢.

Pittsburgh
2.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 30s agoKalshi 3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$583K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pittsburgh
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.4¢.

ClevelandArb
2.4%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 30s agoKalshi 3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cleveland Browns
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cleveland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Show 6 more outcomes
Las VegasArb
1.2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Las Vegas Raiders
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$347K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.9¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Indianapolis
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indianapolis Colts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$816K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Indianapolis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$546K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Los Angeles C
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles Chargers
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles C
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$491K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Miami
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miami Dolphins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$111K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$284K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

New York J
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York Jets
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$409K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New York J
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$619K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tennessee
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tennessee Titans
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$551K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tennessee
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$385K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Buffalo on Kalshi at 20¢, sell on Polymarket at 21¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 22, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nfl.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 22, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Buffalo
  • Kansas City
  • Baltimore

Live prices for Buffalo

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AFC Championship Winner". Buffalo leads at 19.7%. Next is Kansas City at 17.7%. $16.5M has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 22, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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