The Prediction Markets

Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Closes
Aug 31, 2028, in 23 months
Traded
$245.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

55-64 47.5%

Next is Under 45 at 38.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

17 of 58 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
55-64
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
55-64
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Under 45
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Under 45
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
85+
29.2%
Polymarket 29.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
85+
Last price
29.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
57.2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Polymarket
45-54
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
45-54
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
16%
Kalshi 16%live, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Price
16%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom
13%
Kalshi 13%live, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Price
13%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$11.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%live, just nowBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Price
7.1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$8.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
65-74
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
65-74
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Beshear
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%live, just nowBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Price
5.3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 48 more outcomes
75-84
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
75-84
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%live, just nowBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Price
4.7%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$6.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$5.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Kelly
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%live, just nowBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Price
3.6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$8.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Rahm Emanuel
3%
Kalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
J.B. Pritzker
2.8%
Kalshi 2.8%live, just nowBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Price
2.8%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$6.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%live, just nowBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Price
2.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$8.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Raphael Warnock
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%live, just nowBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Price
2.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$5.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Moore
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%live, just nowBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Price
2.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$5.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Michelle Obama
1.8%
Kalshi 1.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$7.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Ro Khanna
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%live, just nowBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ro Khanna
Price
1.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Van Hollen
1%
Kalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$379K
Trade this on Kalshi
David Jolly
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Jolly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Kalshi
Hakeem Jeffries
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Mitch Landrieu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitch Landrieu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Fain
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Fain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sherrod Brown
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sherrod Brown
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Gretchen Whitmer
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$4.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Cuban
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$6.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Murphy
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Cory Booker
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$4.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Bernie Sanders
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$5.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Elissa Slotkin
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen A. Smith
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$7.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruben Gallego
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Obama
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamie Dimon
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Stewart
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%live, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Stewart
Price
0.3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Klobuchar
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Yang
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Dwayne Johnson
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%live, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dwayne Johnson
Price
0.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
John Fetterman
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%live, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Price
0.2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Beto O'Rourke
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beto O'Rourke
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Elizabeth Warren
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Warren
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Gina Raimondo
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gina Raimondo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham Platner
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham Platner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Hillary Clinton
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Hunter Biden
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%live, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Price
0.1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$8.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Polis
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Jasmine Crockett
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jasmine Crockett
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
LeBron James
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Liz Cheney
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liz Cheney
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil Murphy
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Murphy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Democratic Party

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 55-64
  • Under 45
  • 85+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 55-64 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?". 55-64 leads at 47.5%. Next is Under 45 at 38.5%. $245.9M has traded across 58 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 31, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual has won and accepted such nomination by November 7, 2028, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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