The Prediction Markets

Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Closes
Jun 6, 2028, in 20 months
Traded
$57K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Antonio Martín del Campo 40.5%

Next is Leo Montañez at 38%. The venues differ most on Nora Ruvalcaba Gamez (Polymarket 14%, Kalshi 20%), a 6.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Antonio Martín del Campo
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Martín del Campo
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Leo Montañez
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leo Montañez
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Leonardo Montañez Castro
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leonardo Montañez Castro
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toño Martín del Campo
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toño Martín del Campo
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Nora Ruvalcaba GamezArb
15.5%
Polymarket 14%polled, 28s agoKalshi 20%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Anayeli Muñoz
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anayeli Muñoz
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendor Gregorio Macías Martínez
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendor Gregorio Macías Martínez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Leticia Olivares Jiménez
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leticia Olivares Jiménez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Leticia Olivares Jiménez
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorena Martínez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
José Antonio Arámbula López
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
José Antonio Arámbula López
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Aldo Ruiz Sánchez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aldo Ruiz Sánchez
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kendor Macías
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kendor Macías
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Leticia Olivares
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leticia Olivares
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ana Gómez Calzada
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ana Gómez Calzada
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anayeli Muñoz Moreno
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anayeli Muñoz Moreno
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arturo Ávila Anaya
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arturo Ávila Anaya
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Genny Janeth López Valenzuela
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Genny Janeth López Valenzuela
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karla Arely Espinoza
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karla Arely Espinoza
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lorena Martínez Rodríguez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lorena Martínez Rodríguez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Salma Luévano Luna
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Salma Luévano Luna
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Nora Ruvalcaba Gamez on Polymarket at 16¢, sell on Kalshi at 17¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 7, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Instituto Nacional Electoral, Instituto Estatal Electoral de Aguascalientes
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jun 7, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Antonio Martín del Campo
  • Leo Montañez
  • Leonardo Montañez Castro

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Antonio Martín del Campo for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Aguascalientes Governor winner?". Antonio Martín del Campo leads at 40.5%. Next is Leo Montañez at 38%. $57K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 6, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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