The Prediction Markets

AI data center in space by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 23.5%

Next is December 31, 2026 at 2.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2027
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AI data center in space by...?". December 31, 2027 leads at 23.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 2.2%. $63K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any orbital data center is successfully launched by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Orbital data center” refers to any spacecraft, satellite, or equivalent technology carrying computing infrastructure that is launched into Earth’s orbit for the purpose of providing data-center, cloud-computing, or artificial intelligence computing services and which includes at least 100 data-center-grade AI accelerators, GPUs, TPUs, or substantially equivalent compute processors, (e.g. NVIDIA H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or equivalent or successor chips). “Successfully launched” refers to any launch which successfully places a qualifying orbital data center into Earth’s orbit. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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