The Prediction Markets

AL-05 House election: Dale Strong vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 54% 96%

Next is At least 52% at 95.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 54%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 62%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 62%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 64%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 64%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 66%
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 66%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 68%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 68%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 70%
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 70%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 72%
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 72%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Montgomery, AL

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 54%
  • At least 52%
  • At least 56%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AL-05 House election: Dale Strong vote percent". At least 54% leads at 96%. Next is At least 52% at 95.5%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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