The Prediction Markets

AL Manager of the Year Winner?

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 46 days
Traded
$541K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Chicago WS 72.8%

Next is Kevin Cash at 14%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chicago WS 72.8%Kevin Cash 14%A.J. Hinch 0.9%Aaron Boone 0.9%Alex Cora 0.9%12 others 10.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Chicago WS
72.8%
Kalshi 83%(72.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago WS
Last price
83%
Fair, margin removed
72.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$120K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Cash
14%
Kalshi 16%(14% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Cash
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Kalshi
A.J. Hinch
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
A.J. Hinch
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Boone
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Boone
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Cora
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Cora
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chad Tracy
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chad Tracy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Craig Albernaz
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Craig Albernaz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Wilson
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Wilson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Derek Shelton
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Derek Shelton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Espada
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Espada
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
John Schneider
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Schneider
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kurt Suzuki
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kurt Suzuki
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Kotsay
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kotsay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Quatraro
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Quatraro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Skip Schumaker
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skip Schumaker
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Vogt
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Vogt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chicago WS
  • Kevin Cash
  • A.J. Hinch

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AL Manager of the Year Winner?". Chicago WS leads at 72.8%. Next is Kevin Cash at 14%. $541K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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