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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Louis Varland 48.6%
Next is Bryan Baker at 22.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Louis Varland48.6%68%48.6% fair53¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 1 min ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Louis Varland48.6%Kalshi 68%(48.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Louis Varland
48.6%
68%
48.6% fair
53¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Louis Varland
48.6%
Kalshi 68%(48.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Louis Varland
- Last price
- 68%
- Fair, margin removed
- 48.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $20K
Bryan Baker22.9%32%22.9% fair5¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 1 min ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Bryan Baker22.9%Kalshi 32%(22.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Bryan Baker
22.9%
32%
22.9% fair
5¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Bryan Baker
22.9%
Kalshi 32%(22.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryan Baker
- Last price
- 32%
- Fair, margin removed
- 22.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $8K
Cade Smith8.6%12%8.6% fair11¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Cade Smith8.6%Kalshi 12%(8.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Cade Smith
8.6%
12%
8.6% fair
11¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Cade Smith
8.6%
Kalshi 12%(8.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cade Smith
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $19K
Aroldis Chapman3.6%5%3.6% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Aroldis Chapman3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Aroldis Chapman
3.6%
5%
3.6% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Aroldis Chapman
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aroldis Chapman
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $9K
Andres Muñoz1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Andres Muñoz1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Andres Muñoz
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Andres Muñoz
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andres Muñoz
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $3K
Josh Hader1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Josh Hader1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Josh Hader
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Josh Hader
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Hader
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $5K
Brent Headrick0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brent Headrick0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brent Headrick
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brent Headrick
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brent Headrick
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $197
Bryan Abreu0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bryan Abreu0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bryan Abreu
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bryan Abreu
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryan Abreu
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $295
Carlos Estevez0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carlos Estevez0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Estevez
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Estevez
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Estevez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7
David Bednar0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)David Bednar0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
David Bednar
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
David Bednar
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Bednar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Detroit (WVES)0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Detroit (WVES)0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Detroit (WVES)
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Detroit (WVES)
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit (WVES)
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $591
Grant Taylor0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Grant Taylor0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Grant Taylor
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Grant Taylor
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Grant Taylor
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Griffin Jax0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Griffin Jax0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Griffin Jax
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Griffin Jax
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Griffin Jax
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $740
Jeff Hoffman0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jeff Hoffman0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jeff Hoffman
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jeff Hoffman
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeff Hoffman
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $9
Jordan Leasure0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jordan Leasure0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jordan Leasure
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jordan Leasure
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jordan Leasure
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6
Kenley Jansen0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Kenley Jansen0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kenley Jansen
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kenley Jansen
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kenley Jansen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kirby Yates0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kirby Yates0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kirby Yates
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kirby Yates
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kirby Yates
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6
Kyle Finnegan0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kyle Finnegan0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kyle Finnegan
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kyle Finnegan
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Finnegan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6
Mark Leiter Jr.0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Mark Leiter Jr.0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mark Leiter Jr.
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mark Leiter Jr.
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Leiter Jr.
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6
Robert Garcia0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Robert Garcia0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Robert Garcia
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Robert Garcia
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robert Garcia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $814
Robert Stephenson0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Robert Stephenson0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Robert Stephenson
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Robert Stephenson
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robert Stephenson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6
Ryan Helsley0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ryan Helsley0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Helsley
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Helsley
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Helsley
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $771
Taylor Rogers0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Taylor Rogers0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Taylor Rogers
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Taylor Rogers
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Rogers
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $9
Tie/Co-Winners0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie/Co-Winners0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie/Co-Winners
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6
Brayan Bello0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brayan Bello0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brayan Bello
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brayan Bello
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brayan Bello
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Jacob Latz0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jacob Latz0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jacob Latz
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jacob Latz
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jacob Latz
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Louis Varland
- Bryan Baker
- Cade Smith
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "AL Reliever of the Year Winner?". Louis Varland leads at 48.6%. Next is Bryan Baker at 22.9%. $73K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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