Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Kevin McGonigle 76%
Next is Parker Messick at 2.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Kevin McGonigle76%95%76% fair93¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 54s ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Kevin McGonigle76%Kalshi 95%(76% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kevin McGonigle
76%
95%
76% fair
93¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kevin McGonigle
76%
Kalshi 95%(76% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kevin McGonigle
- Last price
- 95%
- Fair, margin removed
- 76%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $391K
Parker Messick2.4%3%2.4% fair2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 54s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Parker Messick2.4%Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Parker Messick
2.4%
3%
2.4% fair
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Parker Messick
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Parker Messick
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $250K
Braden Montgomery0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Braden Montgomery0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Braden Montgomery
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Braden Montgomery
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Braden Montgomery
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $19K
Brice Matthews0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brice Matthews0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brice Matthews
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brice Matthews
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brice Matthews
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Carson Williams0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carson Williams0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carson Williams
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carson Williams
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Williams
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6K
Carter Jensen0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carter Jensen0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carter Jensen
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carter Jensen
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carter Jensen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $52K
Chase DeLauter0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Chase DeLauter0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chase DeLauter
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chase DeLauter
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chase DeLauter
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $186K
Colt Emerson0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Colt Emerson0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Colt Emerson
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Colt Emerson
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colt Emerson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $162K
Connelly Early0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Connelly Early0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Connelly Early
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Connelly Early
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connelly Early
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $20K
Emmanuel Rodriguez0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Emmanuel Rodriguez0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Emmanuel Rodriguez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
Gage Jump0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Gage Jump0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gage Jump
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gage Jump
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gage Jump
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $29K
George Lombard Jr.0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)George Lombard Jr.0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Lombard Jr.
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Lombard Jr.
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Lombard Jr.
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $18K
Hagen Smith0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Hagen Smith0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hagen Smith
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hagen Smith
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hagen Smith
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1
Kazuma Okamoto0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kazuma Okamoto0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kazuma Okamoto
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kazuma Okamoto
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $151K
Lazaro Montes0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lazaro Montes0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lazaro Montes
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lazaro Montes
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lazaro Montes
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1
Max Clark0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Max Clark0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Max Clark
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Max Clark
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Clark
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Munetaka Murakami0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 54s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Munetaka Murakami0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Munetaka Murakami
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Munetaka Murakami
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Munetaka Murakami
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $365K
Noah Schultz0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Noah Schultz0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Noah Schultz
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Noah Schultz
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Schultz
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $18K
Payton Tolle0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Payton Tolle0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Payton Tolle
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Payton Tolle
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Payton Tolle
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $72K
Sam Antonacci0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Sam Antonacci0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sam Antonacci
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sam Antonacci
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Antonacci
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $9K
Samuel Basallo0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Samuel Basallo0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Samuel Basallo
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Samuel Basallo
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Basallo
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $93K
Spencer Jones Jr.0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Spencer Jones Jr.0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Spencer Jones Jr.
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Spencer Jones Jr.
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spencer Jones Jr.
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $34K
Tatsuya Imai0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tatsuya Imai0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tatsuya Imai
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tatsuya Imai
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tatsuya Imai
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $26K
Tie/Co-Winners0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie/Co-Winners0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie/Co-Winners
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Travis Bazzana0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Travis Bazzana0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Travis Bazzana
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Travis Bazzana
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Travis Bazzana
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $80K
Trey Yesavage0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Trey Yesavage0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Trey Yesavage
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Trey Yesavage
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trey Yesavage
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $72K
Walbert Ureña0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Walbert Ureña0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Walbert Ureña
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Walbert Ureña
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Walbert Ureña
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $38K
Walker Jenkins0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Walker Jenkins0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Walker Jenkins
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Walker Jenkins
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Walker Jenkins
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Josue Briceño0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Josue Briceño0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Josue Briceño
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Josue Briceño
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josue Briceño
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Sebastian Walcott0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 54s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Sebastian Walcott0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sebastian Walcott
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sebastian Walcott
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sebastian Walcott
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Kevin McGonigle
- Parker Messick
- Braden Montgomery
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "AL Rookie of the Year Winner?". Kevin McGonigle leads at 76%. Next is Parker Messick at 2.4%. $2.1M has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More sports markets
See all sports markets- F1 Drivers' ChampionKimi Antonelli97.8%$204.6M traded
- 2027 Pro Football ChampionSan Francisco17%$194.5M traded
- Pro Baseball ChampionMilwaukee64%$133.7M traded
- College Football National Championship WinnerGeorgia15%$63.6M traded
- 2027 Pro Basketball ChampionOklahoma City25%$44.5M traded
- MVP Winner?Josh Allen27%$36.6M traded