The Prediction Markets

Alabama Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Tuberville, 1+ pts 89.9%

Next is Tuberville, 4+ pts at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tuberville, 1+ pts
89.9%
Kalshi 89.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 1+ pts
Last price
89.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 4+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 4+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 7+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 7+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 10+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 10+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 13+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 13+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tuberville, 16+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 16+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Tuberville, 19+ pts
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 19+ pts
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 22+ pts
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 22+ pts
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Tuberville, 25+ pts
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 25+ pts
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 28+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 28+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Tuberville, 31+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tuberville, 31+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$752
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alabama Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tuberville, 1+ pts
  • Tuberville, 4+ pts
  • Tuberville, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Tuberville, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alabama Governor margin of victory". Tuberville, 1+ pts leads at 89.9%. Next is Tuberville, 4+ pts at 87%. $21K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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