The Prediction Markets

Alabama Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Moore, 11+ pts 90.7%

Next is Moore, 13+ pts at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Moore, 11+ pts
90.7%
Kalshi 90.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 90.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 11+ pts
Last price
90.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
90.7¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Moore, 13+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 13+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moore, 15+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 15+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
Moore, 17+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 17+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Moore, 19+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 19+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moore, 21+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 21+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Kalshi
Moore, 23+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 23+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moore, 25+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 25+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
12.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moore, 27+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 27+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$968
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35%+
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$904
Trade this on Polymarket
Moore, 29+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 29+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Polymarket
Moore, 31+ pts
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 31+ pts
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moore, 33+ pts
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moore, 33+ pts
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moore, 11+ pts
  • Moore, 13+ pts
  • Moore, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Moore, 11+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alabama Senate margin of victory". Moore, 11+ pts leads at 90.7%. Next is Moore, 13+ pts at 82%. $26K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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