The Prediction Markets

Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Democrat 0-5% 39.2%

Next is Democrat 5%+ at 37.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
39.2%
Polymarket 39.2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 73.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
39.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73.3¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$136 (1.36x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5%+
37.6%
Polymarket 37.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 70.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $142 (1.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5%+
Last price
37.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$142 (1.42x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34.9¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$287 (2.87x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
23.4%
Polymarket 23.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 44.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $226 (2.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
23.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.2¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$226 (2.26x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
23.4%
Polymarket 23.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 44.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $226 (2.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
23.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.3¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$226 (2.26x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Polymarket
Figures, 2+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 2+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Figures, 5+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 5+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 25.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $389 (3.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$389 (3.89x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket
Figures, 8+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 8+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Kalshi
Figures, 11+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 11+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Figures, 14+ pts
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 14+ pts
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Polymarket
Figures, 17+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 17+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Figures, 26+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 26+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Figures, 29+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 29+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25%+
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25%+
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Figures, 20+ pts
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 20+ pts
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Figures, 23+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Figures, 23+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrat 0-5%
  • Democrat 5%+
  • Democrat 0-5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Democrat 0-5% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory". Democrat 0-5% leads at 39.2%. Next is Democrat 5%+ at 37.6%. $4K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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