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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Palmer, 18+ pts 84.8%
Next is Palmer, 21+ pts at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Palmer, 18+ pts84.8%Not listed84.8%79¢ bid, 90.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago90.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Palmer, 18+ pts84.8%Kalshi 84.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Palmer, 18+ pts
84.8%
Not listed
84.8%
79¢ bid, 90.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
90.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Palmer, 18+ pts
84.8%
Kalshi 84.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 84.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
Palmer, 21+ pts79%Not listed79%68¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 min ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Palmer, 21+ pts79%Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Palmer, 21+ pts
79%
Not listed
79%
68¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Palmer, 21+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 21+ pts
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $64
Palmer, 24+ pts66%Not listed66%55¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 1 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Palmer, 24+ pts66%Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Palmer, 24+ pts
66%
Not listed
66%
55¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Palmer, 24+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 24+ pts
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $22
Palmer, 27+ pts51%Not listed51%40¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 1 min ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Palmer, 27+ pts51%Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Palmer, 27+ pts
51%
Not listed
51%
40¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Palmer, 27+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 27+ pts
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $600
Palmer, 30+ pts36%Not listed36%25¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Palmer, 30+ pts36%Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Palmer, 30+ pts
36%
Not listed
36%
25¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Palmer, 30+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 30+ pts
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $420
Republican 25-30%28.5%28.5%22¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Republican 25-30%28.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Republican 25-30%
28.5%
28.5%
22¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Republican 25-30%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 25-30%
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 30-35%27%27%26¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed28¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Republican 30-35%27%Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Republican 30-35%
27%
27%
26¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
28¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Republican 30-35%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 30-35%
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $2K
Palmer, 33+ pts24%Not listed24%13¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Palmer, 33+ pts24%Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Palmer, 33+ pts
24%
Not listed
24%
13¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Palmer, 33+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 33+ pts
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $27
Republican 20-25%17.5%17.5%15¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Republican 20-25%17.5%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Republican 20-25%
17.5%
17.5%
15¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Republican 20-25%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 20-25%
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 45-50%15.1%15.1%1.3¢ bid, 28.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed28.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $346 (3.46x)Republican 45-50%15.1%Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $346 (3.46x)
Republican 45-50%
15.1%
15.1%
1.3¢ bid, 28.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
28.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $346 (3.46x)
Republican 45-50%
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $346 (3.46x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 45-50%
- Last price
- 15.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $346 (3.46x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Palmer, 36+ pts14%Not listed14%3.8¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Palmer, 36+ pts14%Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Palmer, 36+ pts
14%
Not listed
14%
3.8¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Palmer, 36+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 36+ pts
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $631
Republican 35-40%13.7%13.7%10.2¢ bid, 17.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed17.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $581 (5.81x)Republican 35-40%13.7%Polymarket 13.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Republican 35-40%
13.7%
13.7%
10.2¢ bid, 17.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
17.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Republican 35-40%
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 35-40%
- Last price
- 13.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $581 (5.81x)
- Volume
- $768
Palmer, 39+ pts9.8%Not listed9.8%0.1¢ bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Palmer, 39+ pts9.8%Kalshi 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Palmer, 39+ pts
9.8%
Not listed
9.8%
0.1¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Palmer, 39+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 39+ pts
- Last price
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Palmer, 42+ pts7.5%Not listed7.5%— bid, 7.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)Palmer, 42+ pts7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Palmer, 42+ pts
7.5%
Not listed
7.5%
— bid, 7.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Palmer, 42+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 42+ pts
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,333 (13.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Palmer, 45+ pts6.4%Not listed6.4%— bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)Palmer, 45+ pts6.4%Kalshi 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Palmer, 45+ pts
6.4%
Not listed
6.4%
— bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Palmer, 45+ pts
6.4%
Kalshi 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palmer, 45+ pts
- Last price
- 6.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $205
Republican 40-45%5.1%5.1%2.5¢ bid, 7.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)Republican 40-45%5.1%Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Republican 40-45%
5.1%
5.1%
2.5¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Republican 40-45%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 40-45%
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,299 (13.0x)
- Volume
- $600
Republican 10-20%5.1%5.1%0.2¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Republican 10-20%5.1%Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Republican 10-20%
5.1%
5.1%
0.2¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Republican 10-20%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 10-20%
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $857
Republican 50%+3.3%3.3%0.9¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)Republican 50%+3.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Republican 50%+
3.3%
3.3%
0.9¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Republican 50%+
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 50%+
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican 0-10%3.1%3.1%0.7¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Republican 0-10%3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Republican 0-10%
3.1%
3.1%
0.7¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Republican 0-10%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican 0-10%
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $4K
Democrat Wins0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Democrat Wins0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Democrat Wins
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Democrat Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat Wins
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $317
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Palmer, 18+ pts
- Palmer, 21+ pts
- Palmer, 24+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Palmer, 18+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Alabama's 6th District margin of victory". Palmer, 18+ pts leads at 84.8%. Next is Palmer, 21+ pts at 79%. $22K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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