The Prediction Markets

Alabama's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Sewell, 12+ pts 96.2%

Next is Sewell, 18+ pts at 94.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Sewell, 12+ pts
96.2%
Kalshi 96.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 12+ pts
Last price
96.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 18+ pts
94.8%
Kalshi 94.8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 18+ pts
Last price
94.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
90.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 15+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 15+ pts
Last price
93.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
92.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 21+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 21+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 24+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 24+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 27+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 27+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 30+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 30+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 33+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 33+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sewell, 36+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 36+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sewell, 39+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 39+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 15.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $641 (6.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
13.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sewell, 42+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 42+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Kalshi
Sewell, 45+ pts
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sewell, 45+ pts
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40%+
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$877
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$598
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$451
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sewell, 12+ pts
  • Sewell, 18+ pts
  • Sewell, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Sewell, 12+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alabama's 7th District margin of victory". Sewell, 12+ pts leads at 96.2%. Next is Sewell, 18+ pts at 94.8%. $25K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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