The Prediction Markets

Alaska at large House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 230K 92%

Next is Above 240K at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 230K
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 340K
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alaska Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 230K
  • Above 240K
  • Above 250K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska at large House General Election: voter turnout". Above 230K leads at 92%. Next is Above 240K at 87%. $3K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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