The Prediction Markets

Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$31K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $6.2000 60%

Next is Above $6.3000 at 59%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $6.2000
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.2000
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.3000
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.3000
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.1000
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.1000
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.5000
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.5000
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.8000
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.8000
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$753
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.6000
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.6000
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.7000
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.7000
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.0000
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.0000
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.0000
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.0000
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.9000
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.9000
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above $7.2000
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.2000
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.1000
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.1000
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$959
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.4000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.4000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.3000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.3000
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $6.2000
  • Above $6.3000
  • Above $6.1000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026". Above $6.2000 leads at 60%. Next is Above $6.3000 at 59%. $31K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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