The Prediction Markets

Alaska Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 240K 95%

Next is Above 250K at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 240K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250K
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 340K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alaska Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 240K
  • Above 250K
  • Above 260K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 240K leads at 95%. Next is Above 250K at 85%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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