The Prediction Markets

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$32K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 44.5%

Next is Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate at 22.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 44.5%Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate 22.6%Democratic sweep 12.5%Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor 8.6%Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate 4.7%7 others 7.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House
44.5%
Kalshi 57%(44.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House
Last price
57%
Fair, margin removed
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate
22.6%
Kalshi 29%(22.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
22.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic sweep
12.5%
Kalshi 16%(12.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican sweep
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor
8.6%
Kalshi 11%(8.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate
4.7%
Kalshi 6%(4.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent wins House; Republicans win Governor & Senate
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independent wins House; Republicans win Governor & Senate
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic sweep
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic sweep
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats win House & Governor; Republican wins Senate
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats win House & Governor; Republican wins Senate
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats win House & Senate; Republican wins Governor
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats win House & Senate; Republican wins Governor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independent House, Republican Governor, Democratic Senate
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Republicans win Governor & Senate; Democrat wins House
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republicans win Governor & Senate; Democrat wins House
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alaska Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House
  • Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate
  • Democratic sweep

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo". Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House leads at 44.5%. Next is Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate at 22.6%. $32K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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