The Prediction Markets

Alaska Senate election margin of victory

Closes
Jun 2, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
47 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Mary Peltola, 0-3% 23%

Next is Mary Peltola, 3-6% at 23%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 47 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 6-9%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 6-9%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 0-3%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 0-3%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Peltola 9-12%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 9-12%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 3-6%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 3-6%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Peltola 3-6%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 3-6%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
Peltola 0-3%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 0-3%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 6-9%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 6-9%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 9-12%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 9-12%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 12+%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 12+%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 12+%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 12+%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State of Alaska

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mary Peltola, 0-3%
  • Mary Peltola, 3-6%
  • Peltola 6-9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Mary Peltola, 0-3% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska Senate election margin of victory". Mary Peltola, 0-3% leads at 23%. Next is Mary Peltola, 3-6% at 23%. $75K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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