The Prediction Markets

Alaska Senate General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 190K 91%

Next is Above 210K at 84%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 190K
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 230K
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250K
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$458
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 340K
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 370K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 370K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 380K
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 380K
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 390K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 390K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alaska Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 190K
  • Above 210K
  • Above 230K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska Senate General Election: voter turnout". Above 190K leads at 91%. Next is Above 210K at 84%. $7K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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