The Prediction Markets

Alaska Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$78K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Mary Peltola, 2+ pts 63%

Next is Mary Peltola, 4+ pts at 52%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 2+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 2+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 4+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 4+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$458
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 6+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 6+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 0-3%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 0-3%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 0-3%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 0-3%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
Peltola 3-6%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 3-6%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Peltola 9-12%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 9-12%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 8+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 8+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 6-9%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 6-9%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 3-6%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 3-6%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Peltola 12+%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 12+%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 10+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 10+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 6-9%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 6-9%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 12+%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 12+%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 9-12%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 9-12%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State of Alaska, Alaska Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mary Peltola, 2+ pts
  • Mary Peltola, 4+ pts
  • Mary Peltola, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Mary Peltola, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska Senate margin of victory". Mary Peltola, 2+ pts leads at 63%. Next is Mary Peltola, 4+ pts at 52%. $78K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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