The Prediction Markets

ALIGN public sale total commitments?

Closed
Jul 1, 2026
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
250k
53.1%
Polymarket 53.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 59.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
250k
Last price
53.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
59.3¢
Sell Yes
46.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
500k
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
500k
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
1M
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
1M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
2M
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
20M
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 30.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $328 (3.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
20M
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
30.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$328 (3.28x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
100M
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 31.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $321 (3.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
31.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$321 (3.21x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
4M
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8M
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
8M
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Polymarket
30M
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
30M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
50M
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
50M
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
6M
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
6M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Polymarket
80M
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
80M
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket
10M
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
10M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
15M
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
15M
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Polymarket
200M
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$577
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 250k
  • 500k
  • 1M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "ALIGN public sale total commitments?". 250k last traded at 53.1%. Next is 500k at 43%. $48K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if total commitments for the ALIGN raise on Sonar exceeds the number specified in the title before the raise closes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is the official Align raise page available at: https://sale.alignedlayer.com/ If the final commitment amount cannot be verified by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if relevant information becomes permanently unavailable within the market timeframe, this market will resolve to “No.” If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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