The Prediction Markets

Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov

Starts in 5 h 41 minKickoff
Traded
$101K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 90%

Next is Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 66%. The venues differ most on Bublik (Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 21.5
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 22.5
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bublik
54.3%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 55%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Bublik
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 Winner
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 Winner
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Khachanov
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Khachanov
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
  • Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
  • Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov". Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 leads at 90%. Next is Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 66%. $101K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Karen Khachanov in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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