The Prediction Markets

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane

Starts in 15 minKickoff
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Medvedev 85.7%

Next is Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5 at 80%. The venues differ most on Medvedev (Polymarket 85%, Kalshi 86%), a 1.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Medvedev
85.7%
Polymarket 85%polled, 49s agoKalshi 86%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 85¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 Winner
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 Winner
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 22.5
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 23.5
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Terence Atmane
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Terence Atmane
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Medvedev
  • Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5
  • Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5

Live prices for Medvedev

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane". Medvedev leads at 85.7%. Next is Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 21.5 at 80%. $62K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Terence Atmane in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Terence Atmane. This market will resolve to 'Terence Atmane' if Terence Atmane advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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