The Prediction Markets

Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino

Starts in 8 hKickoff
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5 81.5%

Next is Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5 at 59.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Match O/U 21.5
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Basilashvili
55.7%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 56%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 55¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 56¢.

Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 Winner
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 Winner
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Adrian Mannarino
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adrian Mannarino
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Match O/U 23.5
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
  • Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5
  • Basilashvili

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino". Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5 leads at 81.5%. Next is Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-1.5 at 59.5%. $27K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Adrian Mannarino in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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