The Prediction Markets

Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starts in 11 hKickoff
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 88%

Next is Stefanos Tsitsipas at 71%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
88%
Polymarket 88%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Stefanos Tsitsipas
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 21.5
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 4 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 23.5
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 Winner
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Basilashvili
30.7%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 31%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas
  • Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas". Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 leads at 88%. Next is Stefanos Tsitsipas at 71%. $8K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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