The Prediction Markets

Alphabet’s Market Cap end of October 2026?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

3.50-$4.00T 49.5%

Next is 4.00-$4.50T at 43.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

3.50-$4.00T 49.5%4.00-$4.50T 43.1%4.50-$5.00T 4.4%3.50T 1.7%5.00-$5.50T 0.6%2 others 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.50-$4.00T
49.5%
Polymarket 47.7%(49.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50-$4.00T
Last price
47.7%
Fair, margin removed
49.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50.1¢
Sell Yes
45.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.00-$4.50T
43.1%
Polymarket 41.5%(43.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.00-$4.50T
Last price
41.5%
Fair, margin removed
43.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.50-$5.00T
4.4%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.50-$5.00T
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.50T
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50T
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.00-$5.50T
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.00-$5.50T
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.50-$6.00T
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.50-$6.00T
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.00T+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.00T+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.50-$4.00T
  • 4.00-$4.50T
  • 4.50-$5.00T

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alphabet’s Market Cap end of October 2026?". 3.50-$4.00T leads at 49.5%. Next is 4.00-$4.50T at 43.1%. $41K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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