The Prediction Markets

Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$49K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 54.5 billion 95%

Next is Above 55 billion at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 54.5 billion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 54.5 billion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55 billion
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55 billion
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55.5 billion
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55.5 billion
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56 billion
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56 billion
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56.5 billion
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56.5 billion
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57 billion
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57 billion
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57.5 billion
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57.5 billion
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58 billion
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58 billion
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58.5 billion
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58.5 billion
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59 billion
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59 billion
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 59.5 billion
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59.5 billion
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60 billion
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60 billion
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60.5 billion
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60.5 billion
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61 billion
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61 billion
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 54.5 billion
  • Above 55 billion
  • Above 55.5 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026". Above 54.5 billion leads at 95%. Next is Above 55 billion at 89%. $49K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets