Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
70¢ or above 98%
Next is 80¢ or above at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
70¢ or above98%98%8¢ bid, — askpolled, 22s agoNo ask70¢ or above98%Kalshi 98%polled, 22s ago
70¢ or above
98%
98%
8¢ bid, — ask
polled, 22s ago
No ask
70¢ or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 70¢ or above
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- Volume
- $664
80¢ or above98%98%4¢ bid, — askpolled, 22s agoNo ask80¢ or above98%Kalshi 98%polled, 22s ago
80¢ or above
98%
98%
4¢ bid, — ask
polled, 22s ago
No ask
80¢ or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 80¢ or above
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- Volume
- $224
105¢ or above96%96%5¢ bid, — askpolled, 22s agoNo ask105¢ or above96%Kalshi 96%polled, 22s ago
105¢ or above
96%
96%
5¢ bid, — ask
polled, 22s ago
No ask
105¢ or above
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 105¢ or above
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- Volume
- $2K
85¢ or above95%95%5¢ bid, — askpolled, 22s agoNo ask85¢ or above95%Kalshi 95%polled, 22s ago
85¢ or above
95%
95%
5¢ bid, — ask
polled, 22s ago
No ask
85¢ or above
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 85¢ or above
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- Volume
- $682
75¢ or above86%86%No order bookpolled, 22s agoNo ask75¢ or above86%Kalshi 86%polled, 22s ago
75¢ or above
86%
86%
No order book
polled, 22s ago
No ask
75¢ or above
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 75¢ or above
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $777
90¢ or above30%30%— bid, 88¢ askpolled, 22s ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)90¢ or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
90¢ or above
30%
30%
— bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
90¢ or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 90¢ or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $2K
95¢ or above18%18%11¢ bid, — askpolled, 22s agoNo ask95¢ or above18%Kalshi 18%polled, 22s ago
95¢ or above
18%
18%
11¢ bid, — ask
polled, 22s ago
No ask
95¢ or above
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 95¢ or above
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- Volume
- $729
100¢ or above12%12%12¢ bid, — askpolled, 22s agoNo ask100¢ or above12%Kalshi 12%polled, 22s ago
100¢ or above
12%
12%
12¢ bid, — ask
polled, 22s ago
No ask
100¢ or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 100¢ or above
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- Volume
- $1K
110¢ or above12%12%1¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 22s ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)110¢ or above12%Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
110¢ or above
12%
12%
1¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
110¢ or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 110¢ or above
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $204
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CME Group - Aluminum Midwest Premium (AUP)
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 70¢ or above
- 80¢ or above
- 105¢ or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026". 70¢ or above leads at 98%. Next is 80¢ or above at 98%. $9K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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