The Prediction Markets

Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

Closes
May 1, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

170 billion 97.8%

Next is 190 billion at 96.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
170 billion
97.8%
Polymarket 97.8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
170 billion
Last price
97.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
190 billion
96.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
190 billion
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
180 billion
94.8%
Polymarket 94.8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
180 billion
Last price
94.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
200 billion
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
200 billion
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
210 billion
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
210 billion
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
220 billion
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
220 billion
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 170 billion
  • 190 billion
  • 180 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Amazon 2026 capex above ___?". 170 billion leads at 97.8%. Next is 190 billion at 96.4%. $26K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets