The Prediction Markets

American Airlines passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

Closes
Apr 27, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$63K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 80.5% 76%

Next is Above 81% at 72.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 80.5%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80.5%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 81%
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 81%
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 81.5%
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 81.5%
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 82%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 82%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 82.5%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 82.5%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 83%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 83%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 83.5%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 83.5%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 84%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 84%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 84.5%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 84.5%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 85%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 85%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 85.5%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 85.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 80.5%
  • Above 81%
  • Above 81.5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "American Airlines passenger load factor in fiscal 2026". Above 80.5% leads at 76%. Next is Above 81% at 72.5%. $63K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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